Released May 13, 2025
Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.
Apr 2025 | Mar 2025 | M/M difference | Apr 2024 | Y/Y difference | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month-over-month inflation | |||||
Consumer Price Index | 0.22% | -0.05% | 0.27pp | 0.29% | -0.07pp |
Core Consumer Price Index | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.18pp | 0.26% | -0.02pp |
Food Consumer Price Index | -0.08% | 0.44% | -0.52pp | 0.12% | -0.20pp |
Energy Consumer Price Index | 0.67% | -2.39% | 3.06pp | 0.94% | -0.27pp |
Year-over-year inflation | |||||
Consumer Price Index | 2.31% | 2.39% | -0.08pp | 3.36% | -1.05pp |
Core Consumer Price Index | 2.78% | 2.79% | -0.01pp | 3.61% | -0.83pp |
Food Consumer Price Index | 2.76% | 2.96% | -0.20pp | 2.21% | 0.55pp |
Energy Consumer Price Index | -3.74% | -3.25% | -0.49pp | 2.61% | -6.35pp |
Cleveland Fed forecast | Actual | Forecast error | |
---|---|---|---|
Month-over-month inflation | |||
Consumer Price Index | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.00pp |
Core Consumer Price Index | 0.23% | 0.24% | -0.01pp |
Year-over-year inflation | |||
Consumer Price Index | 2.34% | 2.31% | 0.03pp |
Core Consumer Price Index | 2.76% | 2.78% | -0.02pp |
For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:
For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:
Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.
Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.
Apr 2025 | Mar 2025 | M/M difference | Apr 2024 | Y/Y difference | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All employees | |||||
Real hourly earnings | |||||
Month-over-month | 0.00% | 0.27% | -0.27pp | -0.09% | 0.09pp |
Year-over-year | 1.44% | 1.35% | 0.09pp | 0.63% | 0.81pp |
Real weekly earnings | |||||
Month-over-month | -0.05% | 0.62% | -0.67pp | -0.64% | 0.59pp |
Year-over-year | 1.70% | 1.10% | 0.60pp | 0.02% | 1.68pp |
Production and non-supervisory | |||||
Real hourly earnings | |||||
Month-over-month | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.10pp | -0.10% | 0.20pp |
Year-over-year | 1.85% | 1.64% | 0.21pp | 0.62% | 1.23pp |
Real weekly earnings | |||||
Month-over-month | 0.15% | 0.81% | -0.66pp | -0.41% | 0.56pp |
Year-over-year | 2.19% | 1.63% | 0.56pp | 0.03% | 2.16pp |
Date | Time | Release | Data source |
---|---|---|---|
May 21 | 10:00 AM | State Employment Update, April 2025 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
May 29 | 08:30 AM | Monthly GDP Update, Q1 2025 Second Estimate | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
May 30 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Expenditures Update, April 2025 | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
Jun 05 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Trade Update, April 2025 | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
Jun 06 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Employment Update, May 2025 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
Jun 06 | 10:00 AM | Monthly Debt Update, June 2025 | U.S. Treasury |
Jun 11 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Inflation Update, May 2025 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
Jun 12 | 10:00 AM | Monthly Fiscal Update, May 2025 | U.S. Treasury |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations
“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year
Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.