Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.
May 2025 | Apr 2025 | M/M difference | May 2024 | Y/Y difference | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month-over-month inflation | |||||
Consumer Price Index | 0.08% | 0.22% | -0.14pp | 0.04% | 0.04pp |
Core Consumer Price Index | 0.13% | 0.24% | -0.11pp | 0.14% | -0.01pp |
Food Consumer Price Index | 0.29% | -0.08% | 0.37pp | 0.14% | 0.15pp |
Energy Consumer Price Index | -0.98% | 0.67% | -1.65pp | -1.34% | 0.36pp |
Year-over-year inflation | |||||
Consumer Price Index | 2.35% | 2.31% | 0.04pp | 3.27% | -0.92pp |
Core Consumer Price Index | 2.79% | 2.78% | 0.01pp | 3.42% | -0.63pp |
Food Consumer Price Index | 2.88% | 2.76% | 0.12pp | 2.13% | 0.75pp |
Energy Consumer Price Index | -3.46% | -3.74% | 0.28pp | 3.69% | -7.15pp |
Cleveland Fed forecast | Actual | Forecast error | |
---|---|---|---|
Month-over-month inflation | |||
Consumer Price Index | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.04pp |
Core Consumer Price Index | 0.23% | 0.13% | 0.10pp |
Year-over-year inflation | |||
Consumer Price Index | 2.40% | 2.35% | 0.05pp |
Core Consumer Price Index | 2.84% | 2.79% | 0.06pp |
For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:
For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:
Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.
Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.
May 2025 | Apr 2025 | M/M difference | May 2024 | Y/Y difference | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All employees | |||||
Real hourly earnings | |||||
Month-over-month | 0.27% | 0.00% | 0.27pp | 0.36% | -0.09pp |
Year-over-year | 1.44% | 1.53% | -0.09pp | 0.81% | 0.63pp |
Real weekly earnings | |||||
Month-over-month | 0.33% | -0.03% | 0.36pp | 0.66% | -0.33pp |
Year-over-year | 1.46% | 1.78% | -0.32pp | 0.53% | 0.93pp |
Production and non-supervisory | |||||
Real hourly earnings | |||||
Month-over-month | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.20pp | 0.31% | -0.01pp |
Year-over-year | 1.85% | 1.85% | 0.00pp | 0.83% | 1.02pp |
Real weekly earnings | |||||
Month-over-month | 0.31% | -0.18% | 0.49pp | 0.39% | -0.08pp |
Year-over-year | 1.81% | 1.89% | -0.08pp | 0.54% | 1.27pp |
Date | Time | Release | Data source |
---|---|---|---|
Jun 12 | 10:00 AM | Monthly Fiscal Update, May 2025 | U.S. Treasury |
Jun 24 | 10:00 AM | State Employment Update, May 2025 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
Jun 26 | 08:30 AM | Monthly GDP Update, Q1 2025 Third Estimate | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
Jun 27 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Expenditures Update, May 2025 | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
Jul 03 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Employment Update, June 2025 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
Jul 03 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Trade Update, May 2025 | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
Jul 08 | 10:00 AM | Monthly Debt Update, July 2025 | U.S. Treasury |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations
“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year
Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.