January 2026
Released February 13, 2026
Consumer Price Index inflation
Jan 2025 to Jan 2026
Consumer Price Index inflation
Dec 2025 to Jan 2026
Change in real average weekly earnings
Dec 2025 to Jan 2026
Consumer Price Index
From December 2025 to January 2026:
- Headline CPI-U inflation was 0.17 percent.
- Food price inflation was 0.19 percent.
- Energy price inflation was -1.47 percent.
- Core CPI-U inflation was 0.30 percent.
From January 2025 to January 2026:
- Headline CPI-U inflation was 2.39 percent.
- Food price inflation was 2.88 percent.
- Energy price inflation was -0.14 percent.
- Core CPI-U inflation was 2.50 percent.
Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.
Table 1. Consumer Price Index inflation
| Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | Chg. from Dec 2025 | Jan 2025 | Chg. from Jan 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month-over-month inflation | |||||
| Consumer Price Index | 0.17% | 0.30% | -0.13pp | 0.43% | -0.26pp |
| Core Consumer Price Index | 0.30% | 0.23% | 0.07pp | 0.43% | -0.13pp |
| Food Consumer Price Index | 0.19% | 0.66% | -0.47pp | 0.29% | -0.10pp |
| Energy Consumer Price Index | -1.47% | 0.34% | -1.81pp | 0.87% | -2.34pp |
| Year-over-year inflation | |||||
| Consumer Price Index | 2.39% | 2.68% | -0.29pp | 3.00% | -0.61pp |
| Core Consumer Price Index | 2.50% | 2.64% | -0.14pp | 3.26% | -0.76pp |
| Food Consumer Price Index | 2.88% | 3.07% | -0.19pp | 2.50% | 0.38pp |
| Energy Consumer Price Index | -0.14% | 2.30% | -2.44pp | 0.97% | -1.11pp |
Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve forecast
| Cleveland Fed forecast | Actual | Forecast error | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month-over-month inflation | |||
| Consumer Price Index | 0.13% | 0.17% | -0.04pp |
| Core Consumer Price Index | 0.22% | 0.30% | -0.08pp |
| Year-over-year inflation | |||
| Consumer Price Index | 2.36% | 2.39% | -0.02pp |
| Core Consumer Price Index | 2.45% | 2.50% | -0.05pp |
Real earnings
From December 2025 to January 2026:
For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:
- Real average weekly earnings increased by 0.53 percent.
- Real average hourly earnings increased by 0.26 percent.
For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:
- Real average weekly earnings increased by 0.58 percent.
- Real average hourly earnings increased by 0.30 percent.
Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.
Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.
Table 3. Change in real earnings
| Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | Chg. from Dec 2025 | Jan 2025 | Chg. from Jan 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month-over-month change | |||||
| All employees | |||||
| Real weekly earnings | 0.53% | -0.54% | 1.07pp | -0.59% | 1.12pp |
| Real hourly earnings | 0.26% | -0.26% | 0.52pp | 0.00% | 0.26pp |
| Production and non-supervisory | |||||
| Real weekly earnings | 0.58% | -0.40% | 0.98pp | -0.34% | 0.92pp |
| Real hourly earnings | 0.30% | -0.10% | 0.40pp | 0.00% | 0.30pp |
| Year-over-year change | |||||
| All employees | |||||
| Real weekly earnings | 1.88% | 0.75% | 1.13pp | 0.66% | 1.22pp |
| Real hourly earnings | 1.25% | 0.98% | 0.27pp | 0.99% | 0.26pp |
| Production and non-supervisory | |||||
| Real weekly earnings | 2.16% | 1.23% | 0.93pp | 0.99% | 1.17pp |
| Real hourly earnings | 1.52% | 1.22% | 0.30pp | 1.03% | 0.49pp |
Upcoming releases
| Date | Time | Release | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Expenditures Update, January 2026 | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Feb 26 | 08:30 AM | Monthly GDP Update, Q4 2025 Second Estimate | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Mar 05 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Trade Update, January 2026 | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Mar 06 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Employment Update, February 2026 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Mar 11 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Inflation Update, February 2026 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
Notes
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations
“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year
Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.
Due to the lapse in appropriations, the BLS did not publish data for October 2025. As a result, the “month-over-month change” values for November 2025 show the change from September 2025 to November 2025.