April 2025

Released May 13, 2025


Consumer Price Index



From March 2025 to April 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 0.22 percent.
    • Food price inflation was -0.08 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was 0.67 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 0.24 percent.


From April 2024 to April 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 2.31 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 2.76 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was -3.74 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 2.78 percent.


Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.





Table 1. Consumer Price Index

Apr 2025 Mar 2025 M/M difference Apr 2024 Y/Y difference
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.22% -0.05% 0.27pp 0.29% -0.07pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.24% 0.06% 0.18pp 0.26% -0.02pp
Food Consumer Price Index -0.08% 0.44% -0.52pp 0.12% -0.20pp
Energy Consumer Price Index 0.67% -2.39% 3.06pp 0.94% -0.27pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.31% 2.39% -0.08pp 3.36% -1.05pp
Core Consumer Price Index 2.78% 2.79% -0.01pp 3.61% -0.83pp
Food Consumer Price Index 2.76% 2.96% -0.20pp 2.21% 0.55pp
Energy Consumer Price Index -3.74% -3.25% -0.49pp 2.61% -6.35pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.22% 0.22% 0.00pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.23% 0.24% -0.01pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.34% 2.31% 0.03pp
Core Consumer Price Index 2.76% 2.78% -0.02pp


Real earnings


From March 2025 to April 2025:

For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.

Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.


Table 3. Real Earnings Indicators

Apr 2025 Mar 2025 M/M difference Apr 2024 Y/Y difference
All employees
Real hourly earnings
Month-over-month 0.00% 0.27% -0.27pp -0.09% 0.09pp
Year-over-year 1.44% 1.35% 0.09pp 0.63% 0.81pp
Real weekly earnings
Month-over-month -0.05% 0.62% -0.67pp -0.64% 0.59pp
Year-over-year 1.70% 1.10% 0.60pp 0.02% 1.68pp
Production and non-supervisory
Real hourly earnings
Month-over-month 0.10% 0.20% -0.10pp -0.10% 0.20pp
Year-over-year 1.85% 1.64% 0.21pp 0.62% 1.23pp
Real weekly earnings
Month-over-month 0.15% 0.81% -0.66pp -0.41% 0.56pp
Year-over-year 2.19% 1.63% 0.56pp 0.03% 2.16pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
May 21 10:00 AM State Employment Update, April 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 29 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q1 2025 Second Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis
May 30 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, April 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jun 05 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, April 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jun 06 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, May 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jun 06 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, June 2025 U.S. Treasury
Jun 11 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, May 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jun 12 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, May 2025 U.S. Treasury


Notes


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.