May 2025

Released June 11, 2025


+2.35 percent
Consumer Price Index inflation
May 2024 to May 2025
+0.08 percent
Consumer Price Index inflation
Apr 2025 to May 2025
+0.33 percent
Change in real average weekly earnings
Apr 2025 to May 2025


Consumer Price Index



From April 2025 to May 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 0.08 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 0.29 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was -0.98 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 0.13 percent.


From May 2024 to May 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 2.35 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 2.88 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was -3.46 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 2.79 percent.


Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.





Table 1. Consumer Price Index

May 2025 Apr 2025 M/M difference May 2024 Y/Y difference
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.08% 0.22% -0.14pp 0.04% 0.04pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.13% 0.24% -0.11pp 0.14% -0.01pp
Food Consumer Price Index 0.29% -0.08% 0.37pp 0.14% 0.15pp
Energy Consumer Price Index -0.98% 0.67% -1.65pp -1.34% 0.36pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.35% 2.31% 0.04pp 3.27% -0.92pp
Core Consumer Price Index 2.79% 2.78% 0.01pp 3.42% -0.63pp
Food Consumer Price Index 2.88% 2.76% 0.12pp 2.13% 0.75pp
Energy Consumer Price Index -3.46% -3.74% 0.28pp 3.69% -7.15pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.13% 0.08% 0.04pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.23% 0.13% 0.10pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.40% 2.35% 0.05pp
Core Consumer Price Index 2.84% 2.79% 0.06pp


Real earnings


From April 2025 to May 2025:

For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.

Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.


Table 3. Real Earnings Indicators

May 2025 Apr 2025 M/M difference May 2024 Y/Y difference
All employees
Real hourly earnings
Month-over-month 0.27% 0.00% 0.27pp 0.36% -0.09pp
Year-over-year 1.44% 1.53% -0.09pp 0.81% 0.63pp
Real weekly earnings
Month-over-month 0.33% -0.03% 0.36pp 0.66% -0.33pp
Year-over-year 1.46% 1.78% -0.32pp 0.53% 0.93pp
Production and non-supervisory
Real hourly earnings
Month-over-month 0.30% 0.10% 0.20pp 0.31% -0.01pp
Year-over-year 1.85% 1.85% 0.00pp 0.83% 1.02pp
Real weekly earnings
Month-over-month 0.31% -0.18% 0.49pp 0.39% -0.08pp
Year-over-year 1.81% 1.89% -0.08pp 0.54% 1.27pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Jun 12 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, May 2025 U.S. Treasury
Jun 24 10:00 AM State Employment Update, May 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jun 26 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q1 2025 Third Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jun 27 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, May 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jul 03 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, June 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jul 03 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, May 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jul 08 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, July 2025 U.S. Treasury


Notes


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.